Can Team Liquid Overtake Astralis?

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What’s wrong with Liquid?

Rarely in Counter Strike’s history has there been a team so far and above the rest as Astralis. Most eras have been defined by a small group of elites trading tournaments and playing electrifying series. Occasionally there will be a team that separates themselves from the pack, but there have only really been two or three teams to play in their own tier above the rest of the scene.

Liquid have largely been considered a top three team in the world. They play a consistent game based on EliGe and Twistzzz and have flourished in tandem with their young stars. They should be one of the titans of this era, trading tournaments with Astralis and proving themselves worthy of being one of the greats. Do you know Liquid’s record against Astralis with their current roster? 3-16. Liquid has yet to win a best-of-three over Astralis and have come in second at five different tournaments since they added Taco.

That’s not to say that that’s all that bad though. Na’Vi and North have eliminated Astralis from tournaments once each, but by and large Astralis has been nigh unbeatable. Liquid is consistently facing off against Astralis in grand final after grand final but can’t seem to get over the hump. Why? I’m going to present a couple theories as to why Astralis continues to dominate

Lineups

Take a look at the rosters for both teams, ordered roughly from their most valuable player to their least valuable player.

Astralis Liquid
Device Twistzzz
Xyp9x NAF
gla1ve EliGe
Dupreeh Taco
Magisk nitr0

Is there any player you’d take on Liquid over someone on Astralis? Astralis is much deeper, has more threats, has better clutch potential. Twistzz is probably better than Magisk and Dupreeh, but not device. Liquid just find it hard to stand toe to toe with Astralis and compete on an individual level.

The AWP

Another big difference is Astralis’ usage of the AWP. Is there any player you’d feel comfortable AWPing against device on Liquid? When a team can create that sort of mismatch, it adds a lot to their game. Liquid doesn’t really have an answer to a player like device, especially when he gets hot.

Not only does Astralis have the best AWPer in the server, they also have Dupreeh who has turned into a serious threat as a hybrid who can threaten with the AWP. He adds a whole other dimension to Astralis’ game and lets them lock down on CT side.

Liquid has decided to build this roster essentially without a main AWPer. This works pretty well for them in most matchups, and nitr0 has turned into a viable AWPer in most matchups, but they don’t have a superstar who can nullify device when he’s on CT side.

In Game Leading

This section shouldn’t come as a surprise. It seems a little unfair to compare a top five IGL in the scene to someone who picked up the IGL role because he had to. Glaive has been a huge part in turning this team into a powerhouse and maximizing the talent of all the players on the roster. Their system is unparalleled in Counter Strike right now and I would say that Glaive is the best IGL in the game right now.

System

Like I said, Astralis’ system is the best in Counter Strike. They have the perfect balance of roles, the perfect player for each role, and a rock solid IGL that elevates their play while fragging out like a third star on a tier one team. I actually wrote about this recently, you should check it out here

Liquid, on the other hand, has a less clear roster and system in place. Their roster has been torn down and rebuilt a lot in the past two years, which means the roster is pretty uneven in terms of when guys joined. They don’t have an AWPer, their team is half Brazilian, and two of their best players fill pretty similar roles (EliGe and Twistzzz).

Map Pool

Liquid is at a pretty severe disadvantage in the pick ban stage when matching up against Astralis. Here are the two teams map distributions over the last 6 months on LAN.

Liquid Astralis
Inferno Inferno
Mirage Nuke
Cache Overpass
Nuke Dust 2
Dust 2 Train
Overpass

Cache is one of Liquid’s best maps, with an 85% win rate on LAN in the past 6 months. Liquid doesn’t even have a chance to threaten Astralis with it, as it’s Astralis’ permaban. Astralis’ best map is Nuke, which Liquid can’t ban because they have to ban Train, as it’s their worst map by win rate. Astralis can get their best map every time these teams play, which starts Liquid off on the back foot.

What can they do?

Liquid has been in the hunt for a title at every tournament so far this year. They’re clearly close to greatness, and they just need a little push to get over this hump.

The easiest thing to do would be to rejigger their map pool. If they could turn something like Overpass or Dust 2 into an asset, they’d be able to match up with Astralis much better in a best-of-three. Turning a permaban into a map that you pick against Astralis would be exceedingly difficult, but they need to do something to swing the odds. As it is now they end up playing on Astralis’ best map every best-of-three, which clearly isn’t working. Liquid need a map they can regularly pull out a win on in the first two maps of a best-of-three. Unfortunately, Astralis doesn’t have many weak maps. I would say Overpass is their best shot, as it isn’t one that Astralis plays often.

Alternatively, they could try and shuffle their roster a little bit. Grabbing a real AWPer might really help them in this matchup, especially if they can go keep pace with device. Maybe someone like Nifty, who can make big plays, especially when backed up by Twistzzz and NAF. Or they could change up their in game leading, try and find someone who can outcall Gla1ve (although I have no idea who that might be. Sean Gares?)

Overall Liquid looks pretty outclasses. Astralis is a once in a lifetime team, and it won’t be easy for Liquid to topple them. I would imagine Liquid are staring down a fair few more second place finishes.

one response

One response to “Can Team Liquid Overtake Astralis?”

  1. bob says:
    December 5, 2018 at 4:31 pm

    cool post

    Reply

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