Always Bet Against the Young Guys


Every seasoned gambler has a series of personal rules that they follow. In a lot of cases, the rules are based on times that the gambler has been burned, especially if it happens repeatably. (The most famous example being Bill Simmon’s NFL Playoff Manifesto)

During the EU Minor this weekend, I forgot one of my own gambling rules, and paid the price for it.

Never bet on young players/teams in the clutch, especially in big games. I saw this multiple times at the EU Minor, fom ZywOo, from Valiance, from Windigo, even sergej had a bad game on Mirage.

It’s not surprising that these players and teams performed poorly in the big moments. Unless you’ve been in a big game before, it’s hard to know what to do, and how to keep calm.

That’s a big reason that I am such a big fan of having a veteran presence on teams. Those players are crucial when they get into those kinds of games.

When it comes to the wire, the game can start to break down. It’s just like how playoffs in the NBA can look totally different than a regular season game.

Inexperienced players tend to turtle up, trying not to give away an advantage, or get too aggressive trying to end the game. Both of these things will lose games, which is why it’s such a bad idea to bet on these players.

The pressure isn’t always something that needs to be factored into a betting decision, but on younger players in big games, it certainly needs to be.

It’s extra important when the game is played on LAN, in front of a crowd of thousands screaming and clapping and stomping and holding up dumb signs. Which team will be able to handle that environment, and that pressure better?

If you look at some of the results from the EU Minor so far, ZywOo’s statline in their best-of-three against North stands out.

He went 38-39 over the series, which doesn’t seem all that bad until you remember that it’s his worst statline of the event, and against a team that honestly isn’t all that great.

In their best-of-three against Valiance, ZywOo went 72-48, which is almost unbelievable. He has the most kills on the server, over three maps, by 11.

Another example of this is EspiranTo in Valiance’s best-of-three against ENCE. EspiranTo was one of Valiance’s best performers at the tournament, going 50-31 against Mousesports to clinch the 2-0 in their elimination match. Against ENCE, he had the worst K/D going 46-55 over three maps.

These are the kinds of trends you need to keep in mind when betting on Counter-Strike. It’s a high variance game, and even a little edge like this can help push you into the black.

Remember, if you are looking to bet on Counter Strike, or any esport really, we recommend you check out these sites.

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